Placing our bets on 2021

There are plenty of prognosticators opining on what 2021 will bring to the citizens of the U.S. and beyond. A lot of them will use the “there’s a 40% chance technique,” meaning they look like they’re making a bold forecast, but they’re right even if their call doesn’t come through. We can do better than that.

To start, there is a 100% chance that transparency will continue to improve in the food system in 2021. For a while in the first half of 2020, and again ahead of the anticipated fall spike in COVID, some people were buying up whatever they could get their hands on. That won’t continue.

As the food chain again demonstrates its reliability and flexibility, consumers will return their focus to brands and products that align with their nutritional, social and environmental values. Food brands will ramp up efforts to demonstrate their values and commitments, meaning more transparency. Visibility programs will start in the first half of the year and accelerate.

There’s a 100% chance that farmers and ranchers are going to fall under increasing pressure from brands, that are under increasing pressure from consumers, to raise food in a more sustainable fashion.  Financial incentives, or penalties, associated with farm products that align or don’t align with a  consumers continue to work their way into sourcing specs. GMOs, antibiotics and cages are mainstream disqualifiers for some products. Sustainability indexes measuring carbon footprint and water use are here, if not in broad use.

Given the above, there is a 100% chance that talented communicators in the food and ag space are going to continue to be in demand. Strategists, writers, planners, digital specialists, social wizards and  creatives that understand how food is grown and raised, how consumers are approaching food choices, and how to emotionally connect these two groups through common values will be invaluable. First, to maintain basic trust levels for brands and second, to help differentiate brands within key consumer segments.

There’s also a 100% chance that I’m going to appreciate my colleagues at MorganMyers even more in 2021. Like everyone else, we were hit in the mouth in March. A few of us, and some of our clients, were stunned, but nobody came close to quitting. Our brand purpose: we share a passion for agriculture and food to make life better, helped us stay focused. I can’t thank everybody enough for hanging in there with us.

My last 100% lock is the digital thermometer I’ve used to take my temperature every day since St. Patrick’s Day will be relegated to the back of the medicine cabinet again by Labor Day. I’d like to say July 4, but we’ve got to get our front line and vulnerable populations vaccinated first. I’ve seen stories that we’ll have enough vaccines for everyone by June, but forgive me if I’m somewhat cautious about any information coming out around COVID. I’ll wear a mask and try to play it safe until it’s my turn.

Finally, I hope there’s enough joy in 2021 to ease some of the pain from our experiences of this year. (And, if all of the above turns out wrong, look for me to be among the 40 percenter prognosticators heading into 2022.)